Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 23.038789 27.606971 32.627342 38.525563 45.235688 52.602239 61.270285
2025-07-20 16.703750 22.789093 30.144767 39.563514 51.167525 64.856856 82.076653
2025-07-27 13.245579 20.026420 28.847654 40.886409 56.584936 76.045029 101.640028
2025-08-03 10.826147 17.919208 27.750087 41.899584 61.219370 86.124078 120.028642
2025-08-10 8.599706 15.560977 25.817324 41.333373 63.428525 92.924893 134.314059
2025-08-17 7.158304 14.055503 24.791443 41.756890 66.800499 101.229346 150.763303
2025-08-24 5.893741 12.562327 23.520129 41.577567 69.151411 108.104156 165.442664
2025-08-31 4.657761 10.849118 21.623884 40.166141 69.468713 112.001601 176.034534
2025-09-07 4.005178 10.062173 21.121465 40.839266 72.868976 120.367766 193.145127
2025-09-14 3.242271 8.885845 19.763670 39.930506 73.681973 124.895546 204.839353
2025-09-21 2.851507 8.397823 19.568416 40.930896 77.527469 134.050843 223.549108
2025-09-28 2.191762 7.141851 17.733506 38.853676 76.171273 135.160406 230.303885
2025-10-05 1.924967 6.795075 17.715282 40.190824 80.828108 146.169827 252.987416
2025-10-12 1.660137 6.387850 17.526140 41.214069 85.061547 156.789920 275.640124
2025-10-19 1.458691 6.092522 17.524576 42.576629 89.942116 168.626269 300.569392
2025-10-26 1.265470 5.758587 17.379068 43.622404 94.294022 179.752142 324.735595
2025-11-02 1.013942 5.146799 16.481938 43.037837 95.624197 185.919992 341.234684
2025-11-09 0.854294 4.778723 16.103798 43.475074 98.832380 195.310542 363.147012
2025-11-16 0.695757 4.342742 15.472592 43.289945 100.826384 202.685566 381.992007
2025-11-23 0.524131 3.758219 14.328802 41.832632 100.247724 205.571768 393.537713
2025-11-30 0.446127 3.538476 14.147090 42.527683 103.902574 215.937703 417.726704
2025-12-07 0.341710 3.122043 13.308987 41.589303 104.215579 220.388583 432.135429
2025-12-14 0.296410 2.987824 13.296092 42.622292 108.578460 232.209400 459.282807